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Hoi,

last night  I got about the same  plots like you, Ric,  with two small
changes  (lambda1 +/-  0.12 which  is what  Sven said  (I  think), and
taking mB = mb - LambdaBar):

  http://www.slac.stanford.edu/~ursl/talks/021803/lbl1-mba.eps.gz

which shows the chi2. This is also  with rho = -0.8, but I don't think
that Eckhard's  rho is  positive, after all  the original  ellipsis is
tilted in the right way. It must be some "-" sign somewhere.

Operationally (or in the near future), I guess we might just as well
use 

mb = 4.65:  BRBR = 0.0228688 +- 0.00292074(stat) +- 0.00117709(MC stat)
mb = 4.80:  BRBR = 0.0197019 +- 0.00253248(stat) +- 0.0010378(MC stat)
mb = 4.95:  BRBR = 0.0163534 +- 0.00215787(stat) +- 0.000838845(MC stat)

which is a 16.8% variation. If I ran the mb variation fit correctly...
This is still "too good". 

I don't yet know whether going to leading order will change the
correlation between LambdaBar and lambda1

Cheers,
--U.